You’re contemplating making a change in your life, but you’re undecided as to whether to go for it or to keep things as they are. Here’s a rule of thumb for such choices: if you can’t decide what you should do, choose the action that represents a change.
That’s according to Freakonomics author Prof Steven Levitt, who conducted a study which tested a simple method to break decision stalemates – tossing a coin. People struggling with questions like "Should I quit my job?", “Should I break up with my significant other?” and “Should I go back to school?” were recruited to participate in a digital coin toss on his website, FreakonomicsExperiments.com. Heads meant taking action, while tails meant sticking with the current situation.
Over 20,000 coin flips later, the results were clear: people who landed on heads and made a big change reported significantly higher happiness levels two and six months down the line.
'Society teaches us "quitters never win and winners never quit," but in reality the data from my experiment suggests we would all be better off if we did more quitting', said Levitt. 'A good rule of thumb in decision making is, whenever you cannot decide what you should do, choose the action that represents a change, rather than continuing the status quo.'
Now, there are a number of caveats that should be mentioned. The participants in Levitt's study voluntarily chose to participate in the coin toss, which might indicate they were already inclined towards making a change. Thus, the sample may not be representative of the general population. People who are willing to leave their decisions to a coin toss may differ significantly from those who are more risk-averse or firmly committed to the status quo.
Secondly, people who were satisfied with the changes they made may have been more inclined to complete the follow-up surveys than those unhappy with the outcomes.
Thirdly, the types of decisions were varied, including job changes, relationship decisions, and moving to a new city. The findings might not be equally applicable across all types of decisions.
TOO CAUTIOUS
There are other reasons to be cautious about the study. All that said, I think Levitt has a point, and believe his rule of thumb – when you’re genuinely undecided, choose change – is a pretty good one. Much psychological research confirms we are prone to status quo bias. We tend to stick with the devil we know, and are reluctant to make a change unless we're certain the benefits outweigh the risks.
A number of factors are at play here. Firstly, we are hard-wired to be more afraid of potential losses than we are excited about potential gains. Change can be scary and there can be a fear of the unknown, so we often associate change with potential risks and losses. Status quo bias helps us avoid that discomfort by sticking with what's familiar.
Secondly, there is what’s known as the sunk cost fallacy. This is the idea that we cling to something because of the time, money, or effort we've already invested in it. Even if it's not working, we might be reluctant to switch because of what we've already put in.
Thirdly, inertia is a factor. Simply put, it takes effort to make decisions, and sometimes we just want to avoid that effort. The status quo is the easy option, so we go with it.
This status quo bias means that we often fail to make a change even when a change may be good for us. It can be seen in many ways, some trivial (sticking with the same utility provider every year instead of shopping around) and some important (staying in a bad relationship that is making you unhappy).
Sometimes, we will make a change and it won’t work out, but that’s part of life. In later life, people tend to regret the things they didn’t do more than the things we did that went wrong. Playing it safe can be a dangerous way to live.
(First published in Southern Star on 18/7/2024).